No surprise that the people who got Covington so wrong are acting so wild over quick, out-of-context video.
Anyway, I already voted last week, and I'm staying off all forms of social media tomorrow. I'll check the NYT election tracker and/or CNN from time to time, but that's it. I highly recommend everyone do the same. Seriously. Keep your mental health in mind.
The results you see on TV (like CNN) on election night in a normal post-1960 election are not the actual results. They're an estimate of what the results will be with a very high degree of probability based on a mathematical model that takes in data like initial results reported by precincts, exit polls, how people in a precinct have historically voted, and estimated turnout based on the rough number of people seen voting. A common conservative talking point (for 30+ years) is that projections have a liberal bias and are responsible for Democrats winning in California because early projections discourage conservatives there from voting later in the day.
This year, nobody can do projections in a way that's similar to what people are used to, especially older people who watch cable TV and do not use computers. The way results are reported will be a new change that happened before many people felt they could prepare for it, so older conservatives will feel a huge amount of anxiety and emotional arousal.
1. Some Eastern counties immediately release already-counted mail-in ballots and early in-person ballots showing a clear lead for Biden, before polls close in states like Nevada, Arizona, and California.
2. Traditional modeling of in-person Tuesday voting then puts Trump in the lead in many states.
3. Over the next few days or weeks, counties slowly count the remaining mail-in ballots, which put Biden back in the lead in many states.
People might emotionally feel like Trump won because he was in the lead on election night and continuing to count any ballots after that is somehow illegitimate.
There's a serious possibility that Trump won't win ultimately, but the chaos surrounding delayed results will make his supporters emotionally aroused while causing a huge amount of uncertainty surrounding the integrity of election results. That could lead a bunch of Trump supporters into believing that democracy in the US is a complete sham and they can't win no matter what they do because of the "deep state."
The "moderate/soft QAnon" Save the Children groups are less into off-the-wall conspiracy theories than the rest of QAnon, for example. But people who get involved with them can gradually become more radicalized or skeptical of democracy over time, especially when they're going through a lot of stress and uncertainty.
Unverified rumors, Jesse? What other kind of rumor is there? If something is verified it's not a rumor. And who does the verification, how and when and where? This very article of yours is full of rumors about Republicans and the election, none of which you or I can verify, but I still read it with interest as I read all your articles. Luckily, you don't take your own advice!
No surprise that the people who got Covington so wrong are acting so wild over quick, out-of-context video.
Anyway, I already voted last week, and I'm staying off all forms of social media tomorrow. I'll check the NYT election tracker and/or CNN from time to time, but that's it. I highly recommend everyone do the same. Seriously. Keep your mental health in mind.
The results you see on TV (like CNN) on election night in a normal post-1960 election are not the actual results. They're an estimate of what the results will be with a very high degree of probability based on a mathematical model that takes in data like initial results reported by precincts, exit polls, how people in a precinct have historically voted, and estimated turnout based on the rough number of people seen voting. A common conservative talking point (for 30+ years) is that projections have a liberal bias and are responsible for Democrats winning in California because early projections discourage conservatives there from voting later in the day.
This year, nobody can do projections in a way that's similar to what people are used to, especially older people who watch cable TV and do not use computers. The way results are reported will be a new change that happened before many people felt they could prepare for it, so older conservatives will feel a huge amount of anxiety and emotional arousal.
A possible scenario is:
1. Some Eastern counties immediately release already-counted mail-in ballots and early in-person ballots showing a clear lead for Biden, before polls close in states like Nevada, Arizona, and California.
2. Traditional modeling of in-person Tuesday voting then puts Trump in the lead in many states.
3. Over the next few days or weeks, counties slowly count the remaining mail-in ballots, which put Biden back in the lead in many states.
People might emotionally feel like Trump won because he was in the lead on election night and continuing to count any ballots after that is somehow illegitimate.
There's a serious possibility that Trump won't win ultimately, but the chaos surrounding delayed results will make his supporters emotionally aroused while causing a huge amount of uncertainty surrounding the integrity of election results. That could lead a bunch of Trump supporters into believing that democracy in the US is a complete sham and they can't win no matter what they do because of the "deep state."
The "moderate/soft QAnon" Save the Children groups are less into off-the-wall conspiracy theories than the rest of QAnon, for example. But people who get involved with them can gradually become more radicalized or skeptical of democracy over time, especially when they're going through a lot of stress and uncertainty.
Unverified rumors, Jesse? What other kind of rumor is there? If something is verified it's not a rumor. And who does the verification, how and when and where? This very article of yours is full of rumors about Republicans and the election, none of which you or I can verify, but I still read it with interest as I read all your articles. Luckily, you don't take your own advice!